Hung up on Hormuz: the old-world order of oil was just shattered by the closing of Iran’s key global chokepoint

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Wall Street has pushed back on the doomsday framing. Citadel Securities published a blistering takedown of the Citrini essay, noting, for instance, that demand for software engineers is up 11% year over year, and more broadly arguing that productivity shocks have historically expanded output and raised real incomes. Morgan Stanley predicted a wave of entirely new roles—chief AI officers, computational geneticists, and “vibe coding” product managers. The Deutsche Bank Research Institute’s proprietary AI tool forecast that while 92 million jobs will be eliminated by 2030, 170 million new roles will be created.​

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